by Fantasy football analyst Dalton Del Don breaks down some key numbers with 2023 NFL training camps just a few weeks away.
Case for Tony Pollard as RB2 from fantasy
Christian Macaffrey earns the top spot among fantasy RBs given its use in Kyle Shanahan‘s offence (even with the Elijah Mitchell factor). But there’s a big tier after CMC, made up of nine running backs, all with similar arguments (and questions) to be ranked next. Tony Pollard is my No. 2 fantasy back (its expert consensus rank is the RB9), assuming Ezekiel Elliott will not return to Dallas. Pollard average 19.3 PPR points on 10 carries last season, what would have been fantasy’s RB3. He ended up as the RB8 despite seeing less than 50% of snaps in eight games and a modest 232 total touches – Dallas runs back combined for 524, and Elliott is gone. Pollard won’t be a real workhorse with 325+ touches, but he is average 102.3 yards from scrimmage and 0.91 touchdowns during games with a rapid rate of over 50% throughout his career; and now he is clearly ready for the vast majority of opportunities in his career.
Meanwhile, there are concerns about the other eight comparable running backs:
Pollard’s turn touchdown regression and will suffer by Kelly Moore departureBut Mike McCarthy‘s run heavy play calling should help. Moreover, Ronald Jones is capable, legitimately draught-free and the likely main beneficiary should Pollard suffer an injury. Pollard in round three was always too good to be true, but he still is an absolute winner in the late second.
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Rashad Penny to the moon 🚀
Cent has an extensive injury history and probably carries more risk than most running backs, but that’s why his ADP is 92.9, despite having a “league-winning” fantasy. Penny had one of these the best collegiate seasons of all time, totaling 2,383 yards from scrimmage with 25 touchdowns in 13 games during his senior year at San Diego State. He is the NFL’s all-time leader in yards per carry (minimum 300 rushes) – forward Bob Jackson And Jamal Charles. Penny has just turned 27 (and has traveled few miles), excels in yards after contact and may break charts in the philadelphia system. He’s overproduced Dirk Hendrik when given 12+ carries in a game during his career.
Penny’s in now a very successful Eagles offense that lost Miles Sanders to free desk and sport one of the best lines in the league. Philadelphia also ranked first in pace and plays per minute last season. Jalen hurts will steal touchdowns, but Sanders had the fourth most rushes in the red zone, scoring 11 touchdowns in this role last year. Penny hasn’t been used heavily in the passing game, but Hurts targeted RBs one of the lowest rates in the league last season, so newcomer D’Andre Swift doesn’t seem to fit well into his new schedule (and has a similar injury risk).
The Penny is rumored to be thanks to his cheap contract seems highly unlikely given his health clearance (and since he is the team’s best option to play running back). I give Penny a 50/50 chance to score more fantasy points this season than Miles Sanderswho goes five rounds earlier. Each walking back has a real risk of injury. Penny is a top 25 RB on my board.
You may want to avoid Rachaad White at ADP
White sees plenty of fantasy love as the Buccaneers’ likely new workhorse thanks to Tampa Bay’s small RB league. But expectations should be kept in check (and fantasy choices around his 78.3 Yahoo ADP should be used elsewhere, like on our man Rashad Penny instead of). White is a late third round pick who has never reached 200 carries, dating back to college and it was one of the league’s worst runners as a rookie, finishing last in rush hour. He was also outplayed by Dusty Leonard Fournet in the passing game and benefited greatly Tom Brady check downs.
The Buccaneers leave providing the most catchable targets in the league last season to Baker Mayfield (or Kyle Trask). Mayfield too targets running backsbut its EPA/dropback (-0.12) and CPOE (-7%) were both worse than Zak Wilson final season; a downgrade doesn’t get more dramatic than going from the GOAT to Mayfield. Tampa Bay scored the second fewest points in the NFC last season and is expected to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023. White’s selling period in dynasty leagues is now.
