It’s a loaded NHL slate on this fine Tuesday, with 11 games set for the night. Not only is the volume there, but the quality is as well.
There is conceivable betting value in each game Tuesday night, but now is the time to sharpen up where we can.
I’ve got one team prop that sticks out, and one SOG parlay. Let’s get to the spots.
New York Islanders to score a power-play goal (-103 Sugarhouse)
This is the biggest discrepancy between units I’ve seen since I started digging into power-play and penalty-kill data, making this -103 price extremely reasonable.
I’m looking at last 10 numbers for how teams perform on both the PP and PK. The metrics I bring in include not only goals, but expected goals, Corsi and High Danger opportunities.
I’ve also included time on ice on the penalty kill as a ranking for a PK unit.
With all of that established, I have the Islanders down as the third-best power-play team in the past 10 games and the Ottawa Senators as the second-worst penalty killing team.
The conventional numbers back this up, as the Islanders have scored eight power-play goals in their past 10.
With Ottawa both spending a lot of time killing penalties and having difficulties slowing down scoring when a man down, I like the Islanders to net one Tuesday on the PP.
If you don’t have access to this market, consider Noah Dobson for a PowerPlayPoint, at +290. Dobson has 6 PPP in his last six home games.
This is a .5 unit play for me, I’m still testing out this particular market.
Jack Eichel/Jaden Schwartz over 2.5 SOG (+144 DK)
This 2.5 number is looking good for Eichel, who has gone over in 12 of his last 15 games.
He’s hit in 78% of road games this season, averaging 6.6 shot attempts per game when away from Vegas.
He covered his SOG against this Winnipeg team just last week, finishing with 5 SOG. The Jets are allowing 32.1 shots per game at home in their last ten.
Meanwhile, Jaden Schwartz is rolling, hitting his SOG in seven straight games. He’ll get the best opponent he could have in Arizona tonight, who are letting up 40.9 shots per game at home in their past ten.
Combining the two gives us a parlay at +144 on DraftKings.