NHL Monday bets: Backing Ottawa’s offense

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There’s only one NHL game to begin the new week, but it’s one that seems to hold value.

We’ve got Arizona visiting Ottawa, an intriguing study between a Coyotes team scoring at a ridiculous pace and an Ottawa team that feels due for a bit more scoring of their own.

These two teams met last Saturday, an 8-5 Arizona win. Should we expect a similar result, or is it time to back the home team?

I like the Senators tonight. Let me explain.

Metrics that Suggest Senators are the Play

If you’re a visual learner, I’ve tried to succinctly summarize how this game looks on paper from the above chart.

That table takes in all the stats I typically begin my research with. From shots to goals, to the more advanced metrics like expected scoring and power play/penalty kill trends.

My view on the above shows me an Ottawa team that should be scoring more than they have been, paired with an Arizona defense that should be seeing more goals against them than it has been.

Together, it feels like a nice time to target regression for both sides, suggesting Ottawa gets on the board tonight.

Further aiding this view is the vast disparity between power play and penalty kill units. Ottawa’s power play ranks favorably when it comes to shots and high danger scoring opportunities, with Arizona owning the worst penalty killing unit in the NHL.

When these teams last met, Ottawa scored a power play on one of their two chances. Should they see a higher volume of power plays, I like them to score again.

It was Josh Norris who netted one there, and I think he stands a good chance to repeat it tonight.

How I’m Betting This Game

I considered a bet that incorporated Ottawa to win, but with Filip Gustavsson in net (3.66 goals allowed average this year), I’m far less confident in that result.

Still, I like Ottawa to score here, and with Arizona’s top defensemen Jakob Chychrun out, there’s plenty that points to Senator scoring.

I’ll be targeting their team total here.

Best Bet: Ottawa over 3.5 total goals, including OT (+100 DK)



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