Last night was another successful foray into the NBA three-point prop market, going 5-1 on the betting options outlined.
I say we keep it rolling. I can’t stress enough how simple this process is: I’m following volume and volume alone.
Teams that let up threes and a player who is shooting the most from deep are the targets.
I will note that Devin Booker and the Suns do match the criteria against Houston, but I get hesitant with the Suns on a back-to-back. Booker seems to shoot less on zero days of rest.
That leaves us with five players tonight. Use the below as a resource, and tail responsibly.
Rozier has been firing off three-pointers lately with eight-plus attempts in seven of his last eight games, averaging an absurd 9.8 attempts in his past five.
Rozier gets himself a great matchup on paper tonight against Atlanta, which is allowing the seventh-most threes per game this season and allowing opponents to shoot the third-highest mark from deep.
Curiously, Rozier has failed to hit more than one three against the Hawks in his two games against them, so take that as you will. I’m just following the numbers.
Rozier has four-plus threes made in five of his last six games. These odds seem extremely reasonable to me given the opponent.
- 4+ threes (+108 FanDuel)
- 5+ threes (+250 FD)
Staying in this game, there is also an edge for Trae Young. Charlotte is allowing the second-most threes per game in the NBA and also has a bottom-10 three-point percentage.
Young has attempted a mammoth 24 threes in his past two games and is averaging eight attempts from long range per game in his last 10.
He made eight threes when these teams last met in January.
- 4+ threes (+118 FD)
- 5+ threes (+280 FD)
The Trail Blazers have been one of the worst defenses at guarding the perimeter this season, allowing the third-most threes per game and the highest 3P% to opponents.
You have to love seeing that, and it’s Evan Fournier on the Knicks who is currently operating at the highest volume from deep.
Fournier is averaging 8.1 attempts from long range in his past 10 games, shooting five-plus times in 26 straight games.
His role is clear, and his target is tremendous.
- 4+ threes (+100 FD)
- 5+ threes (+240 FD)
I was quite surprised to see how many threes LeBron James is both shooting and making lately.
LeBron is chucking up 9.4 per game in his last five and has made four-plus in four of them.
James and the Lakers get a Minnesota defense allowing the eighth-most threes per game, so we load him up off this shooting volume.
- 3+ threes (-152 FD)
- 4+ threes (+178 FD)
The Bucks are letting up the most threes per game this season, making them a target for this type of angle on a nightly basis.
I see Fox as the best option on Sacramento. His overall volume is not tremendous, but he’s attempted 25 threes in his past three games.
Fox has an extremely reasonable line and odds given that his season-long production hasn’t been great. I’m liking the recent volume, perhaps a shift in his role?
Is this because of Tyrese Haliburton being traded? I have no clue, but it’s the most obvious connection I’ve concocted.
Either way, there’s a lot to like here.
- 2+ threes (-132 FD)
- 3+ threes (+245 FD)
- 4+ threes (+740 FD)