NBA Play-in Prop Bets: Targeting Hawks and Spurs shooters


We correctly circled Paul George to hit his threes last night, so let’s keep the momentum rolling into Wednesday’s NBA play-in slate.

We have two games this evening between the nine and ten seeds, along with some very favorable three-point targets.

For the first time, I’m loading up two shooters from the same team. In total, we’ve got three prop targets for the night.

Let’s get to the spots.

Bogdan Bogdanovic

It’s the Hawks that will bring us two shooters tonight, and the reason to double-dip is built on volume and the opponent.

First, the team they’re playing, the Charlotte Hornets. Charlotte has allowed the second-most threes per game this season and has let opponent’s shoot 36.2% from deep, the eighth-highest mark in the league.

We turn to Bogdanovic, who brings great value considering the shots he’s been attempting.

In his last ten games, Bogdanovic is averaging 8.4 attempts from long-range (8.8 in his past five).

Not only are the shots there, but he’s making them too, going over four threes made in six of his past ten.

I’m following this volume and efficiency into two plus-money plays.

Betting options:

  • 4+ threes (+130 DraftKings)
  • 5+ threes (+270 FanDuel)

Trae Young

If you’re going to go with just one shooter on the Hawks, it likely should be Trae Young. Young is averaging 9.2 three-point attempts per game in his past ten and an equal-to-Bogdan 8.8 in his last five.

Trae hasn’t had a big game from deep in some time, so perhaps in this win-or-go-home contest he will come through. He’s made over 3.5 threes in five of ten, but no more than four in any of those contests.

He did have one big game against the Hornets earlier this season, netting eight threes, so here’s to him doing it again.

Betting options:

  • 4+ threes (-125 DK)
  • 5+ threes (+186 FD)

Keldon Johnson

We’re likely running out of time to bet on Keldon Johnson, a man who has won us a decent chunk of bets since we began this prop exercise.

Johnson’s threes have waned a bit, but the opponent warrants a bet on our favorite Spurs shooter.

The Pelicans are allowing the eighth-most threes per game and letting the opposition shoot the fifth-highest percentage from deep.

In his past ten games, Johnson is chucking up 7.5 three-pointers per game. As long as we maintain this floor of attempts, Johnson will be in a good spot to pour in some shots.

Betting options:

  • 3+ threes (+100 DK)
  • 4+ threes (+270 FD)
  • .25u: 5+ threes (+700 FD)

I can’t pass up that 5+ threes, call me a sucker if you want. All of the other wagers are half-unit bets for myself. Good luck tonight in the NBA, let’s see some makes from long-range!


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