For regular readers, you have surely seen the weight I put into power-play and penalty-kill data.
I find the angle to be incredibly intriguing, and on this Tuesday in the NHL, two games rise above the rest when projecting a power-play goal.
Know that this factor can be applied to other areas of the betting market. I typically use this as a layer in betting a team’s over or a player to get a point.
The logic being that I like this player to record a point, and knowing he’s involved in the power play in an advantageous spot, I like it even more.
While I have two bets here, use this information where you feel most confident.
Given the relative “newness” of this market, both of these are plays to win .5u, limiting risk as we test out these numbers.
New York Rangers to score a power-play goal (-143 Sugarhouse)
There are four key metrics I’m digging into for both power play performance and penalty kill quality:
- Goals For (Allowed)
- Expected Goals For (Allowed)
- Corsi For (Against)
- High Danger Corsi For (Against)
I’m looking for teams that rank highly in these four metrics while on the power play and teams that rank poorly when on the penalty kill.
Together, it’s helped fueling my personal rankings for each unit in the NHL.
With that established, this is the clearest disparity in quality today.
New York’s power play ranks first when taking into account their averages across the board.
That take is backed up by more traditional metrics, seeing their power-play success ranks first in the NHL in the past 20 games and their 17 power-play goals in that same span the third-most in the league.
On the other end is an Anaheim team severely struggling on the penalty kill. I have the Ducks ranked 25th on the penalty kill, weighed down by unfavorable metrics in the Corsi and High Danger department.
I like New York to net one should they see man-up opportunities Tuesday night. The Rangers got five power-play opportunities against the Ducks last time these teams met, failing to score.
While you may look at that and think it will happen again, I see these numbers and expect a regression to the mean.
Alternative options I realize this betting market isn’t available to everyone. My guess as to who scores on the power play goes to Artemi Panarin, who has a power-play point in 43% of his games this year.
Pittsburgh to score a power-play goal (-134 Sugarhouse)
Ingrain this in your head: target Nashville for power-play scoring every time they play.
Not only do I have the Predators down as 24th ranked penalty-killing team, they also average the third-most ice time per game on the PK.
So, Nashville both struggles to slow down power-play scoring while simultaneously gifting teams plenty of opportunities to capitalize.
In slots the Penguins, who come in as my fifth-best power play team. Their 18 power play goals in the past 20 games is second-most in the NHL.
If you’re looking for a player to target here, I lean Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel or Evgeni Malkin. All three have been getting shots off on the power play, and given the expected volume and difference in units, I think all three are viable options to score Tuesday.
Hope you found this helpful! I love this data and will continue sharing these spots when they arise. Good luck Tuesday night.